预报员的作用

Encyclopédie environnement - prévisionniste - forecaster

 

  预报员通常是指负责进行天气预报的气象学家。本文介绍了2016年预报员的岗位职责及其使用的工具和方法。全球所有公共或私营气象服务机构内均设有预报员岗位。本文介绍了预报员的主要职责:保障公众的人身及财产安全。此外,预报员也服务于众多对天气或气候敏感的职能部门,根据观测和预报的天气情况提供决策支持。

1. 预报员,一个不断发展的职业

  预报员的首要职责是向用户或客户解释并描述所关注地区的未来天气状况,以适当的沟通方式传递高质量的技术信息。这是一个古老的使命,目前,这一职业不仅存在于所有公共的国家气象服务部门(NMSs),也存在于从事气象工作的私营部门实体中。气象部门的人员状况和费用问题是国际比较研究的主题。近些年,数值天气预报(NWP)取得了长足进展(参见天气预报介绍)大气监测手段发生了显著变化,这使得预报员的职能也随之发生了变化。

  系统地使用数值天气预报模型进行预报可以追溯到20世纪70年代和80年代。从这一时期起,数值预报开始提供有关中纬度地区可能发生风暴的相关信息。风暴会对人员和财产造成巨大损失,对其进行预测至今仍是欧洲关注的焦点。强大风暴的发生促使法国于1856年在巴黎天文台内设立了国际气象服务[1],并于2001年实施了气象警戒系统[2]

环境百科全书-预报员的作用-2013年,生态、可持续发展和能源部长戴尔菲娜·巴托夫人访问了位于图卢兹的法国气象局国家预报中心
图1. 2013年,生态、可持续发展和能源部长戴尔菲娜·巴托夫人访问位于图卢兹的法国气象局国家预报中心(CNP)。
[图片来源:©法国气象局]

  目前预报员的工作主要包括对现有数值模拟进行解释,并对预报数据构建手段的进展情况进行监测,如提高数值天气预报模型及后期处理(统计调整)的质量。得益于在信息使用方面以及规划领域的可视化方面取得的长足进展,上述工作已成为可能。事实上,这些数据已经从纸上的图形输出转变为计算机表示[3]。此外,排版和传播这些预报结果的可能性也大幅提升(印刷媒体、视听、电话亭、互联网、移动电话)。如今,公司的绩效要求以及在短时间内需考虑的信息量使得预报员的工作既充满挑战又令人兴奋(图1)。

2. 方法论的一些要素

  预报技术取决于所预报的“气象对象”的时空尺度:如比利牛斯山顶下午的一场风暴,塞文山脉次日的一场暴雨,以及法国下周的一场热浪。所有这些都基于预报方法,其中包括分析预报两个阶段。

环境百科全书-预报员的作用-数值预报的局限性
图2. 数值预报的局限性:两个模型(红绿等值线)分析的海平面气压降低情况,以及一位预报员根据卫星图像和2006年戈登系统温带过渡阶段的观测结果绘制的实际情况(黑色等值线)。
[图片来源:©法国气象局]
  分析步骤包括研究当前和近期的气象状况,了解其动态,确定相关结构,并将其与气候学联系起来。特别是,有必要确定数值天气预报模型的模拟以及其他使用外推技术的产品在多大程度上与气象现实相一致,因为这是可以通过不同的观测方法来理解的(图2)。此分析通常是从所谓的天气尺度[4]开始,这是对法国这样的国家,或者更准确地说,是对某一个经济区或省进行几小时到几天预报的相关尺度。多年来,该方法主要基于对对流层的表面和高度条件的综合深入研究。监测动态对流层顶(参见地球的大气层和气体层),强调位势涡度的概念,对理解中纬度地区天气条件的演变至关重要[5]。在对流现象占主导地位的热带地区,还需要其他概念[6](参见信风的关键作用)。法国气象局通过图形文件ANASYG/PRESYG[7]正式确定了这一综合研究,并在各国家气象部门中由国家层面的预报员开展研究。目的是确定当前可用的最佳预报产品。在区域或局地层面,一旦整合了这一天气框架,就有可能在较小的规模上进行类似的分析。

  预报步骤首先包括在分析过程中识别的结构如何随着数值模拟而演变,或者,若无法演变,则寻找最能代表它们的可用外推产品。在短期内,由于这种演变在某种程度上具有线性属性,预报员很容易纠正上一步骤中出现的缺陷:例如降水或雾区的地理转移,低估了低压加深的强度。这种预报称为确定性预报。从长期来看,由于大气的演化是非线性的,一些结构可能会消失,而另一些结构可能会产生。数值建模(参见天气预报模式)的优势在于能够模拟这些外推法所无法模拟的事件。外推法的分析无法区分数值模拟中可能存在的不同选项。

  在第二步中,该方法变得具有概率。在一系列可能的发展中,预报员寻找最有可能出现的情况,评估预报中涉及的问题,并设法使潜在的预报误差最小化。这种评估基于集合预报(Atger,2000)[4]的使用(参见集成预报),但也可通过比较国家气象部门提供的不同确定性模型的模拟来进行。这里需要注意的是,短期和长期的概念与我们试图预报的气象现象有关。我们谈论的是可预范围:对于一场暴风雨而言是几个小时,对于暴风而言则是几天。还应补充的是,通过预报员在分析、预报和验证预报的常规活动中所获得的模型行为知识,可以识别这些数值天气预报模型中某些反复出现的缺陷。这些要素涉及预报过程,但也用于改进数值预报本身(减少已识别的偏差)。矛盾的是,这种反馈使得预报员越来越难以对模型进行批判性地检验!最后,强调要联合使用全球模式(覆盖全球)和有限区域模式(覆盖有限地理区域)来解决不同尺度的大气现象问题。另一个困难是,区域模拟不一定会放大用于耦合的预报,但由于具有一定的自主性,这种小尺度预报可能与大尺度预报有很大差异。

3. 保障人员和财产安全——一项重要任务

  向当局、公民、交通、能源和通信基础设施管理利益攸关方预警可能发生的气象危险是国家气象部门的主要任务之一,也是其存在的原因之一。自2001年以来,法国气象局通过气象监测系统(Beysson,2001)[2]履行这一职能。许多国家,尤其是欧洲国家,都不同程度采用了这一程序,法国国家和地区预报员负责执行这一程序。由于需要连续性,该工作安排被设置成提供24小时天气监测的常设服务

  这种监测或跟进作用有时被低估,但却至关重要。它包括检测任何未预料到的潜在危险气象现象,以便尽快向那些可能受其影响的用户发出警告。这项任务很困难,一方面是因为此类现象是出乎意料的,另一方面是因为目前的观测手段可能不足以监测到这类现象。例如,冬季某些路段的冰雪状况是无法感知的。在这一领域,新兴的车联网技术为气象观测提供了有趣的应用可能性。警戒监视图发挥了预测危险现象的作用。该图用绿色、黄色、橙色和红色四种颜色显示各省在未来24小时内气象和水文危险的警戒水平。颜色的选择基于所考虑的参数超过阈值的标准(2016年有9种危险)。

环境百科全书-预报员的作用-红色预警实例
图3. 红色预警实例:2016年春强降雨导致塞纳河的一些支流(尤其是卢万河)爆发洪灾。
[图片来源:©法国气象局]
  这些标准反映了灾害相关场地的脆弱性。这些标准是在了解该灾害现象的气候特征并与负责在预警情况下采取行动的公共机构(民事安全、卫生机构)协商后制定的。通过分析预测方法,预报员在考虑具体情况(干燥土壤条件、节假日期间的道路迁移等)的同时选择正确的颜色。预报结果会得到系统评估和反馈。该程序在检测、误报和预期时间方面设定了宏伟的目标。媒体对某些事件的大量报道会引发公众的紧张情绪。这些都将预报员置于危机管理环境中决策机制的核心位置(见图3)。

  需要补充的是,在专业部门中也存在监测和预测的角色。海事领域针对海况采用了特别预警系统。在航空领域,对悬浮在大气中的火山灰、结冰以及威胁到飞机安全的湍流现象也实施了其他预警程序。后者由具有国际民航组织认可资质的气象预报员执行。在发生核事故、化学事故或海洋污染时,预报员会对所谓的环境紧急情况进行干预。按需使用特定数值模型,即所谓的扩散模型,以提供可能受污染物影响的地理区域的信息。

4. 气象援助,不同活动领域的决策支持实例

  有些活动部门的成就依赖于天气条件,这些部门利用气象实体的服务来满足自己的需要。这个功能称为气象援助建议(图4)。有些机构选择将这一职能纳入其组织内部。例如,法国电力公司(EDF)的预报员团队参与了水电生产的水资源管理。其他具有更具体需求的组织机构将这一功能外包出去。体育赛事的组织者要求天气状况众人皆知,这些任务由经过专门培训的预报员负责执行。他们有时会前往活动地点,尽可能接近用户,从而提供量身定制的服务。预报员使用专用的观测手段,例如移动气象雷达,从而大大提高对活动现场降水发生的预测能力。

环境百科全书-预报员的作用-乔尔·科拉多,法国气象局预报员
图4. 乔尔·科拉多,法国气象预报员,1994年至2015年法国广播电台的标志性人物。
[图片来源:©法国气象局]
  在法国,参加罗兰加洛斯网球锦标赛是一个具有象征意义的历史案例。这种类型的服务已经普及。我们谈论的是海上帆船比赛或山区探险的天气路线[8]。天气因素对公司的成功至关重要。行星太阳能项目就是一个例子。这是2010-2012年首次完全由太阳能驱动的环球航行。此次探险动员了法国气象局海洋部门的预报员。他们首先进行了上游气候评估,通过研究观测数据和现有的风力、日照、海面洋流以及海浪数值数据,确定了最佳的海洋路线。之后,在为期18个月的环球航行中,实时协助该船。预报员提供每日天气预报并持续监测情况,以确保船只避开风暴和云层。

5. 未来展望

  数值天气预报(NWP)的巨大进步、模型空间分辨率(千米级)的急剧提高、数据可用性的时间步长,预报更新的频率(越来越接近于同化周期),正在改变和扰乱人类专家在预报过程中的作用。目前所能获取的信息量之大,有时无法在给定的时间内对这一进程进行评估。因此,越来越多的预报是自动化的,即通过计算机处理链直接提供给用户,而无需人工干预。此外,在公共和私营部门中许多实体都在实施降低成本的政策,这往往会限制人类专家在这些组织机构中的地位。而这些机构因此会寻求更高程度的自动化。预报员应在何时、哪些领域发挥自己的专长?我们是否应该只关注具有高社会或经济风险的情况?专业知识是否应该投入于目前在月度和季节范围内出现的新的预测应用领域?这些都是21世纪气象服务部门面临的问题。

 


参考资料及说明

[1] Roy, S., 2012: 125 years in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower, Météo France

[2] Beysson, J.P., 2001: Editorial, review La Météorologie 8ème série n°32, p. 3, by the association Météo et Climat

[3] 计算机显示有多种形式:地图、时空部分、动画。通过研究定点观测、无线电探空仪、雷达或卫星图像以及社交网络上的共享信息,可以了解当前(当前时间)的气象条件。

[4] Atger, F., 2000 : La prévision du temps à moyenne échéance en France, revue La Météorologie 8ème série n°32, p. 61, by the association Météo et Climat

[5] Georgiev, C., P. Santurette, K. Maynard, 2016 : Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 2nd Edition, Academic Press

[6] Beucher, F., 2010: Tropical meteorology: from trade winds to cyclones, 2 volumes, Météo France

[7] Santurette, P., A. Joly, 2002: ANASYG/PRESYG, Météo-France’s new graphical summary of the synoptic situation, Meteorol. Appl. 9, p. 129-154

[8] Giezendanner, Y., F. Guais, 2007 : Le routeur des cimes, Editions Paulsen


环境百科全书由环境和能源百科全书协会出版 (www.a3e.fr),该协会与格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学和格勒诺布尔INP有合同关系,并由法国科学院赞助。

引用这篇文章: GILLET-CHAULET Bruno (2024年3月11日), 预报员的作用, 环境百科全书,咨询于 2024年12月9日 [在线ISSN 2555-0950]网址: https://www.encyclopedie-environnement.org/zh/air-zh/role-of-forecaster/.

环境百科全书中的文章是根据知识共享BY-NC-SA许可条款提供的,该许可授权复制的条件是:引用来源,不作商业使用,共享相同的初始条件,并且在每次重复使用或分发时复制知识共享BY-NC-SA许可声明。

The role of the forecaster

Encyclopédie environnement - prévisionniste - forecaster

The common predictionist name commonly refers to the meteorologist responsible for developing weather forecasts. This article describes the functions of a forecaster in 2016, as well as the tools and methods he uses. All global weather services, public or private, include forecasting positions in their organizations. Part of the article is devoted to their main responsibility: the safety of people and property. But forecasters are also involved in many sectors of activity, sensitive to weather or climate, by providing decision support based on observed and forecasted conditions.

1. Forecaster, an evolving profession

The forecaster’s first function is to explain and describe, for a user or client, the future weather conditions in an area of interest. It must deliver a quality technical message with appropriate communication. This mission is an old one. It is currently present in all public National Meteorological Services (NMSs) but also in private sector entities dealing with meteorology. It is also the subject of international comparative studies in terms of staff and costs for these structures. The way in which this function is carried out has been marked by a strong evolution in recent years in line with the remarkable progress of Numerical Weather Forecasting (NWP) on the one hand (read Introduction to Weather Forecasting), and the means of observing the atmosphere on the other hand.

Without providing a historical background, the systematic use of NWP models for forecasting can be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s. It is from this period that numerical forecasting begins to provide relevant information on the possible anticipation of the occurrence of storms at mid-latitudes. Predicting these phenomena, which can cause considerable damage to people and property, is still a major concern in Europe today. Significant storms led to the creation in France of an international meteorological service [1] within the Paris Observatory in 1856 and the implementation of the meteorological vigilance system [2] in 2001.

Encyclopedie environnement - previsionniste - Delphine Batho Ministre de Ecologie Meteo France - forecaster role - vosot delphine batho meteo france
Figure 1. Visit of Mrs Delphine Batho, Minister of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy, to Météo France’s National Forecast Centre (CNP) in Toulouse in 2013. [© Météo France]
The forecaster’s work is now essentially based on the interpretation of the available numerical simulations. It monitored progress in the means of constructing forecast data, such as improving the quality of the NWP models themselves and their post-processing (statistical adaptations). It has been made possible by the evolution of the possibilities to use the information provided and to visualize the planned fields. These have in fact shifted from graphic outputs on paper to computer representations [3]. In addition, the possibilities of formatting and disseminating these forecasts have increased (print media, audio-visual, telephone kiosks, Internet, mobile phones). Today, the company’s performance requirements and the volume of information to be taken into account in very short periods of time make the work of the forecaster both difficult and exciting (Figure 1).

2. Some elements of methodology

The forecasting techniques depend on the spatial and temporal scales of the “meteorological object” being forecast: a windstorm on a Pyrenean summit for the afternoon, an episode of heavy rainfall over the Cévennes for the following day, a heat wave in France for the following week. All of them are based on the approach, which includes two stages known as analysis and forecasting.

Encyclopedie environnement - previsionniste - limites une prevision numerique - numerical forecast - forecaster role
Figure 2. The limits of a numerical forecast: the reduced surface pressure at sea level analysed by two models (red and green iso-lines), and the reality (black iso-lines) drawn by a forecaster in view of the satellite image and observations made during the extratropical transition phase of the Gordon system in 2006. [© Météo France]
The analysis step consists in studying the current and recent past meteorological situation, understanding its dynamics, identifying relevant structures and contextualizing it in relation to climatology. In particular, it is necessary to identify to what extent the simulations of NWP models mainly, but also other products using extrapolation techniques, available for the moment under study, are consistent with the meteorological reality as it can be apprehended by the different observation methods (Figure 2). This analysis generally starts at the so-called synoptic scale [4] which is the relevant scale for a forecast from a few hours to a few days for a country like France, or more precisely an economic region or a department. For several years, the method has been based in particular on a combined in-depth study of surface and altitude conditions in the troposphere. Monitoring the dynamic tropopause (read The atmosphere and the Earth’s gaseous envelope), highlighted by the concept of a potential vorticity, is indeed crucial to understanding the evolution of weather conditions at mid-latitudes [5]. In tropical regions where the phenomenon of convection dominates, other concepts [6] are needed (read The Key roles of the trade winds). This synoptic study, formalized in Météo France by the graphic documents ANASYG/PRESYG [7], is present in the various NMSs and carried out by forecasters at a national level. The objective is then to qualify the best forecasting products of the moment which can then be exploited. At the regional or local level, once this synoptic framework has been integrated, it is possible to carry out a similar analysis on a smaller scale.

The forecasting step consists, first, in understanding how the structures identified during the analysis will evolve with the numerical simulations or, failing that, the available extrapolation products, which best represent them. In the short term, as this evolution is more or less linear, it is quite easy for the forecaster to correct defects diagnosed in the previous step: the geographical shift of an area of precipitation or fog, the underestimation of the intensity of the deepening of a depression for example. This forecast is called deterministic. In the longer term, since the evolution of the atmosphere is non-linear, some structures may disappear and others may be born. It is the strength of numerical modeling (read Weather forecasting models) to have the ability to simulate these events that an extrapolation, by definition, does not allow. The difficulty then lies in the fact that the analysis does not give the possibility to discriminate between the different options that may be present in numerical simulations.

In a second step, the approach thus becomes probabilistic. Among a range of possible developments, the forecaster looks for the most likely scenario, assesses the issues involved in forecasting and seeks to make the one that minimizes the potential forecast error. This evaluation is based on the use of ensemble forecasts (Atger, 2000) [4] (read The ensemble forecasting) but is also carried out by comparing simulations of the different deterministic models made available by the NMS. It is important to note here that the concepts of short and long term are related to the meteorological phenomena that we are trying to predict. We are talking about a predictability horizon: for a storm, it is a few hours, for a windstorm of a few days. It should also be added that the knowledge of model behaviours, acquired through the forecaster’s experience in his regular activity of analysis/forecasting and verification of his own forecasts, makes it possible to identify certain recurring defects in these NWP models. These elements are involved in the forecasting process, but are also used to improve the numerical forecast itself (reduction of identified biases). Paradoxically, this feedback makes it increasingly difficult for forecasters to critically examine models! Finally, the joint use of global models (covering the entire globe) and limited-area models (covering a limited geographical area) will be emphasized to address the problem of the different scales of atmospheric phenomena. An additional difficulty is that a limited-area simulation does not necessarily zoom in on the forecast used for its coupling, but that with some autonomy, this small-scale forecast can differ significantly from the larger-scale one.

3. Safety of people and property, an essential mission

Warning authorities, citizens, transport, energy and communication infrastructure management stakeholders of the possibility of a meteorological danger is one of the main operational missions of NMSs, one of the reasons for their very existence. Since 2001 in France, this function has been carried out at Météo France through the meteorological monitoring system (Beysson, 2001) [2]. The implementation of this procedure, adopted in more or less similar terms by many countries, particularly in Europe, is the responsibility of national and regional forecasters in metropolitan France. Since it requires continuity, the organization of work is organized into permanent services that provide a 24-hour weather watch.

This monitoring or follow-up role, sometimes underestimated, is essential. It consists in detecting any potentially dangerous meteorological phenomenon that has not been anticipated in order to warn users who may be exposed to it as soon as possible. This task is difficult because, on the one hand, the phenomenon is by definition unexpected, and on the other hand, because the means of observation may be insufficient to detect it. For example, it is impossible to perceive the snow and ice conditions on certain road sectors in winter. In this field, the emerging technologies of connected vehicles offer interesting possibilities of use for meteorological observation. The role of anticipating dangerous phenomena is carried out by the vigilance watch map. This indicates by department the level of vigilance required in the face of meteorological and hydrological dangers for the next 24 hours, using 4 colours: green, yellow, orange, red. The choice of colour is based on criteria for exceeding the thresholds of the parameters taken into account (9 hazards in 2016).

Encyclopédie environnement - prévisionniste - exemple de vigilance rouge - red alert
Figure 3. An example of red alert: historical flooding of some tributaries of the Seine (the Loing in particular) after the exceptional rainfall in spring 2016. [© Météo France]
These criteria reflect the vulnerability of the site in relation to these hazards. They were built knowing the climatology of the phenomenon and in consultation with the public authorities in charge of the actions to be taken in the event of a warning (civil security, health authorities). The analysis/prediction approach allows forecasters to choose the right colour while taking into consideration the context of the situation (dry soil conditions, road migration during holidays, etc.). Forecasts are systematically evaluated and feedback is provided. The procedure sets ambitious targets in terms of detection, false alarms and anticipation times. The high media coverage of certain events causes periods of tension. These place forecasters at the heart of decision-making mechanisms in a crisis management context (see Figure 3).

It should be added that monitoring and anticipation roles also exist in specialized sectors. Special warning procedures apply in the maritime field for sea states. Others are being implemented in the aeronautics sector for volcanic ash suspended in the atmosphere, icing and turbulence phenomena that threaten aircraft safety. These latter procedures are carried out by forecasters with qualifications recognized by the international civil aviation organization. Finally, forecasters intervene in so-called environmental emergencies in the event of nuclear or chemical accidents or marine pollution. The use, on demand, of specific numerical models, known as dispersion models, makes it possible to provide information on the geographical areas that may be affected by pollutants.

4. Meteorological assistance, examples of decision support in different fields of activity

Some sectors of activity whose achievements depend on weather conditions use the services of meteorological entities to meet their needs. This function is called meteorological assistance or advice (Figure 4). Some structures choose to integrate this function within them. This is the case, for example, in France in a company such as EDF, where teams of forecasters are involved in the management of water resources for hydroelectric production. Other structures, which have more specific needs, outsource this function. Sports event organisers are highly publicised requesters. The missions are then carried out by specially trained forecasters. They provide tailor-made services sometimes by travelling to the place of activity to be as close as possible to the user. They can use dedicated observation means, such as mobile weather radars, which make it possible to significantly improve the anticipation of the occurrence of precipitation at the event site.

Encyclopedie environnement - previsionniste - Joel Collado, previsionniste de Meteo France
Figure 4. Joël Collado, forecaster of Météo France, an emblematic voice on Radio France from 1994 to 2015. [Source : © Météo France]
In France, attendance at the Roland Garros tennis tournament is an emblematic historical example. This type of service has since become widespread. We are talking about weather routing for sailing races at sea, or expeditions in the mountains [8]. The weather factor can be crucial to a company’s success. One example is the PlanetSolar project, the first round-the-world boat trip powered solely by solar energy in 2010-2012. This adventure mobilized forecasters from Météo France’s Marine division. They first carried out an upstream climatological assessment to determine the best maritime route to follow a priori, thanks to the study of observations and available numerical data on winds, sunshine, surface marine currents and waves. Then, in real time, they assisted the ship during its 18-month voyage around the globe. They provided daily forecasts and continuous monitoring of the situation to ensure that the vessel avoided windstorms and clouds.

5. Prospects for the future

The spectacular improvement in numerical weather prediction (NWP), the sharp increase in the spatial resolution of models (at kilometric level), the time step of data availability (intra-clockwise), the frequency of forecast refreshes (increasingly close assimilation cycles), are changing and disrupting the role of the human expert in the forecasting process. The volume of information available is now such that it is sometimes impossible to assess this process in a given time frame. An increasing proportion of forecasts are therefore automated, i.e. made available to the user directly by a computerized processing chain without human intervention. In addition, the cost reduction policies implemented in many entities in both the public and private sectors tend to limit the place of the human expert within these structures, which are therefore seeking ever greater automation. When and in what areas should the forecaster exercise his or her expertise? Should we focus only on situations with high societal or economic stakes? Should expertise invest in the new fields of application of forecasting that are currently emerging at monthly and seasonal scales? These are the questions facing weather services in the 21st century.

 


References and notes

[1] Roy, S., 2012: 125 years in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower, Météo France

[2] Beysson, J.P., 2001: Editorial, review La Météorologie 8ème série n°32, p. 3, by the association Météo et Climat

[3] Computer representations take many forms: maps, spatial and temporal sections, animations. They lead to performances such as augmented reality and they make it possible to know the current meteorological conditions (the present time) by studying spot observations, radiosondes, radar or satellite imagery, and shared information on social networks.

[4] Atger, F., 2000 : La prévision du temps à moyenne échéance en France, revue La Météorologie 8ème série n°32, p. 61, by the association Météo et Climat

[5] Georgiev, C., P. Santurette, K. Maynard, 2016 : Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 2nd Edition, Academic Press

[6] Beucher, F., 2010: Tropical meteorology: from trade winds to cyclones, 2 volumes, Météo France

[7] Santurette, P., A. Joly, 2002: ANASYG/PRESYG, Météo-France’s new graphical summary of the synoptic situation, Meteorol. Appl. 9, p. 129-154

[8] Giezendanner, Y., F. Guais, 2007 : Le routeur des cimes, Editions Paulsen


环境百科全书由环境和能源百科全书协会出版 (www.a3e.fr),该协会与格勒诺布尔阿尔卑斯大学和格勒诺布尔INP有合同关系,并由法国科学院赞助。

引用这篇文章: GILLET-CHAULET Bruno (2024年3月7日), The role of the forecaster, 环境百科全书,咨询于 2024年12月9日 [在线ISSN 2555-0950]网址: https://www.encyclopedie-environnement.org/en/air-en/role-of-forecaster/.

环境百科全书中的文章是根据知识共享BY-NC-SA许可条款提供的,该许可授权复制的条件是:引用来源,不作商业使用,共享相同的初始条件,并且在每次重复使用或分发时复制知识共享BY-NC-SA许可声明。